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    Tuesday, December 30, 2008

    The Satyam saga

    Satyam’s story is taking interesting turns of late now. And the repurcussions are going a bit beyond what I used to think as possible earlier. My earlier notions have been that the stock market and the share prices at best have a secondary effect on the parent company and companies are run based on what they bring home and not by the tribulations of the market. But this issue has made me reconsider my notions. Let me put it down in points:

    • Satyam as a company has got its shares listed in the stock exchange and are driven by the general mood of stock market. Normal and boring.
    • Then Mr. Raju decides to use some of Satyam’s cash pile to bail out his son’s companies and this has got the investor community up in arms. They start dumping shares en masse and this leads to a massive fall in the share price.
      • So far, this is only a market issue with some repurcussions to the promotors but not the company as an entity. But then this changes. As it transpires, some of the promoter’s shares have been pledged to some institutions in exchange for cash and they have done the same further. The loss of share value means that the collateral is lesser in value than the loan. This forces the holder to start selling the shares to avoid any further loss.
    • This changes the game completely, as the promoters might now have gone in minority and are liable to be ousted from the company. The company is now getting seriously affected.
    • What happens next is to be seen closely……

    Personally, it now looks out to be a long drawn out affair. I was hoping for a bonanza announcement this board meeting but the resignation of its directors has meant that such decisions will not be smoothly taken. Anyway, i still reiterate this stock to be a great buy at every fall. There are good short term rewards at the very least here.

    The way the internet is moving

    Saturday, December 27, 2008

    Why did Sensex crash from 20K to under 10K?

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/rssarticleshow/msid-3901597,flstry-1.cms

    A voice of sanity. Its amazing how sentimental we become when it comes to making our decisions. Like the author says here:

    “It is strange that when prices fall in general, we are all happy because goods are now better value. But when stock prices fall, we shed copious tears. Exactly the same stocks with exactly the same economic fundamentals were great buys with Sensex at 20,000; but they are bad investments today with Sensex at some 10000 odd!”

    On the whole though a good time to buy.

    Friday, December 26, 2008

    The Satyam Opportunity

    I might be a bit naive in here but let me stick my neck out. I dont own any shares of Satyam till date but this to me seems to be a great time to buy Satyam shares. I am looking at a good jump in share prices in the next year plus dividends or bonus options if the current board decides to fight this out. I believe I should be buying more of Satyam

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/rssarticleshow/msid-3888972,flstry-1.cms

    The latest news about Satyam which I vaguely instinctively believe is trading at Santa Claus bargain rates. Let me lay down some rules:

    1. The share capitalisation will be atleast 20% from current levels up in 2 months time (considering that it has fallen 40% in the past weeks)
    2. There is a very good possibility of a massive dividend - mainly as a move to assuage the shareholders and temporarily prevent massive sell off

    So in the by end of Feb my holding of Rs 100 should fetch me atleast 120 + a handsome dividend.

    Top Technology Breakthroughs of 2008

    http://www.wired.com/gadgets/miscellaneous/news/2008/12/YE8_techbreaks?currentPage=all

    A look at what 2008 brought us and where we might be moving in 2009. While this list tends to be only technology related at present, some of these are nonetheless very interesting. My favourites:

    • Flexible Displays – Leading the way to wearable computers and all other kinds of possibilities.
    • GPS – We are now seeing the trend of attaching GPS coordinated geographical information to any and every kind of database available. Imagine reminder services that not only remind you of time but also the place of activation. So the next time you are at a superstore your mobile will automatically bring in the grocery list. Ahh.. life will be so much easier.

    Thursday, December 25, 2008

    Looking back at 2008.

    Looking back at 2008.

    A year where some would say there were more losers than winners. I would personally call it a year we learnt a lot. A lot about getting simple. Getting back to the basics.

    All of a sudden, being in cash and having solid content has become more important than having a potential. We are all in a process of Getting Real. Getting to know the real value of things. So in a way, its been a good year. An adventurous year……

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7786169.stm